BK Häcken FF vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 79¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 10

Over21¢Under79¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$276.85

Smart Money Entry

56.9¢ → 79¢

+39% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over21%

Under79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,728

Combined PnL+$271.67

Over4 traders

Total Value$161.69

Total Shares360

Combined PnL+$5.18

Under — 43%Over — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (2 on Under) disagree here.

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 2

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 56.9¢	$979.4	$1.2K	+$286.74	50% 1408-1410 (2818)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 56¢	$444.4	$430.26	-$14.13	57% 1516-1167 (2683)
└ Under leg	Underavg 56¢	$229.95	$306.11	+$76.16
└ Over leg	Overavg 44¢	$214.45	$124.15	-$90.29
OM omnibus-076daa	Underavg 57¢	$143.16	$128.09	-$15.07	37% 191-330 (521)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 35¢	$91.24	$93.36	+$2.12	58% 3757-2710 (6467)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 44.5¢	$89	$34.08	+$3.14	49% 231-239 (470)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 43.8¢	$22.34	$22.86	+$0.51	31% 170-383 (553)
dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$11.99	$11.39	-$0.6	42% 197-277 (474)
LR lryyy<$100	Underavg 57¢	$2.85	$2.85	-$0	50% 151-150 (301)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$979.4

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$286.74

Record

50%

1408-1410 (2818)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$444.4

Value

$430.26

PnL

-$14.13

Record

57%

1516-1167 (2683)

Both legs:

Under$229.9556¢+$76.16

Over$214.4544¢-$90.29

omnibus-076daa

Under

Invested

$143.16

Value

$128.09

PnL

-$15.07

Record

37%

191-330 (521)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$91.24

Value

$93.36

PnL

+$2.12

Record

58%

3757-2710 (6467)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$89

Value

$34.08

PnL

+$3.14

Record

49%

231-239 (470)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$22.34

Value

$22.86

PnL

+$0.51

Record

31%

170-383 (553)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.99

Value

$11.39

PnL

-$0.6

Record

42%

197-277 (474)

lryyy<$100

Under

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.85

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

151-150 (301)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 79%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (2 on Under) disagree here.

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 2

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.8%

79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.