Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 95¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 10

Over5¢Under95¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$304.46

Smart Money Entry

86.1¢ → 95¢

+10% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over5%

Under95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,459

Combined PnL-$187.78

Over4 traders

Total Value$38.59

Total Shares769

Combined PnL-$116.68

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 81¢	$2.2K	$1.0K	-$177.64	50% 1423-1425 (2848)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 94.8¢	$1.0K	$988.44	-$51.4	56% 488-383 (871)
RN1	Underavg 78¢	$393.55	$433.91	+$40.36	58% 3768-2723 (6491)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 20.4¢	$149.49	$36.63	-$112.87	57% 1516-1167 (2683)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 76¢	$6.84	$7.74	+$0.9	31% 176-393 (569)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 7¢	$1.5	$1.07	-$0.43	26% 228-657 (885)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 27.9¢	$3.91	$0.7	-$3.21	26% 229-666 (895)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 27¢	$0.37	$0.19	-$0.18	44% 79-102 (181)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$2,162.01

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$177.64

Record

50%

1423-1425 (2848)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$1,039.85

Value

$988.44

PnL

-$51.4

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

RN1

Under

Invested

$393.55

Value

$433.91

PnL

+$40.36

Record

58%

3768-2723 (6491)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$149.49

Value

$36.63

PnL

-$112.87

Record

57%

1516-1167 (2683)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$6.84

Value

$7.74

PnL

+$0.9

Record

31%

176-393 (569)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.07

PnL

-$0.43

Record

26%

228-657 (885)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.91

Value

$0.7

PnL

-$3.21

Record

26%

229-666 (895)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.37

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$0.18

Record

44%

79-102 (181)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 95%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.2%

95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.