Real Madrid CF Femenino vs. Paris FC: O/U 3.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (44%) · Under at 84¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 10

Over17¢Under83¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

-$321.36

Smart Money Entry

55¢ → 83.5¢

+52% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over17%

Under84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares4,982

Combined PnL+$155.34

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares3,121

Combined PnL-$476.71

Under — 44%Over — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 57.3¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$177.55	50% 1408-1410 (2818)
0X 0xc15b7d997a404e55ba96d1cdd53fb160db153b86CTR	Overavg 49¢	$977.56	$648.38	-$329.18	—
RN1	Underavg 51¢	$578.39	$589.73	+$11.34	58% 3757-2710 (6467)
0X 0x1B8FfDb4FF99B4622F099465C486E4F75751cca7-1779298477893	Underavg 55¢	$549.98	$519.99	-$30	2% 4-256 (260)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 48.2¢	$541.96	$479.66	-$62.3	57% 1516-1167 (2683)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.2¢	$396.93	$333.27	-$63.66
└ Under leg	Underavg 58.9¢	$145.03	$146.39	+$1.36
VeryLucky888	Underavg 53¢	$248.12	$231.34	-$3.54	49% 231-239 (470)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Overavg 45¢	$255.73	$181.85	-$73.88	25% 214-643 (857)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 46.1¢	$242.81	$168.63	-$74.18	25% 215-633 (848)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$8.5	$8.5	+$0	25% 213-654 (867)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$5.79	$6.31	+$0.53	31% 170-383 (553)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,461.5

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$177.55

Record

50%

1408-1410 (2818)

0xc15b7d997a404e55ba96d1cdd53fb160db153b86CTR

Over

Invested

$977.56

Value

$648.38

PnL

-$329.18

Record

—

RN1

Under

Invested

$578.39

Value

$589.73

PnL

+$11.34

Record

58%

3757-2710 (6467)

0x1B8FfDb4FF99B4622F099465C486E4F75751cca7-1779298477893

Under

Invested

$549.98

Value

$519.99

PnL

-$30

Record

4-256 (260)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$541.96

Value

$479.66

PnL

-$62.3

Record

57%

1516-1167 (2683)

Both legs:

Over$396.9348.2¢-$63.66

Under$145.0358.9¢+$1.36

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$248.12

Value

$231.34

PnL

-$3.54

Record

49%

231-239 (470)

LightParadoxCTR

Over

Invested

$255.73

Value

$181.85

PnL

-$73.88

Record

25%

214-643 (857)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$242.81

Value

$168.63

PnL

-$74.18

Record

25%

215-633 (848)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.5

Value

$8.5

PnL

+$0

Record

25%

213-654 (867)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.79

Value

$6.31

PnL

+$0.53

Record

31%

170-383 (553)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 84%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.