Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FK Austria Wien: O/U 0.5
3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 96¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Over
9
Over 33%
$6.3K
-$336.7
91.8¢ → 95.7¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 91.8¢ | $5.7K | $6.0K | +$268.62 | 50% 1503-1507 (3010) |
BL BlackMamba08CTR | Underavg 12.5¢ | $684.67 | $205.77 | -$478.9 | — 2-1 (3) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Overavg 94¢ | $78.08 | $79.82 | +$1.74 | 34% 233-457 (690) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Overavg 96.2¢ | $49.98 | $49.68 | -$0.3 | 41% 3084-4451 (7535) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Underavg 3¢ | $21.51 | $25.81 | +$4.3 | 12% 17-121 (138) |
 SharkbettingComCTR<$100 | Underavg 15¢ | $30 | $7.2 | -$22.8 | 0% 0-64 (64) |
RO roscoffCTR<$100 | Underavg 47.4¢ | $65.5 | $4.98 | -$60.52 | 51% 39-38 (77) |
 CypyaCTR<$100 | Underavg 11.6¢ | $15.68 | $4.88 | -$10.79 | — 1-3 (4) |
WH whosayCTR<$100 | Underavg 35.5¢ | $42.36 | $4.3 | -$38.06 | 67% 16-8 (24) |
Invested
$5,686.78
Value
$6.0K
PnL
+$268.62
Record
50%
1503-1507 (3010)
Invested
$684.67
Value
$205.77
PnL
-$478.9
Record
—
2-1 (3)
Invested
$78.08
Value
$79.82
PnL
+$1.74
Record
34%
233-457 (690)
Invested
$49.98
Value
$49.68
PnL
-$0.3
Record
41%
3084-4451 (7535)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$21.51
Value
$25.81
PnL
+$4.3
Record
12%
17-121 (138)
SharkbettingComCTR<$100Invested
$30
Value
$7.2
PnL
-$22.8
Record
0%
0-64 (64)
Invested
$65.5
Value
$4.98
PnL
-$60.52
Record
51%
39-38 (77)
CypyaCTR<$100Invested
$15.68
Value
$4.88
PnL
-$10.79
Record
—
1-3 (4)
Invested
$42.36
Value
$4.3
PnL
-$38.06
Record
67%
16-8 (24)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.