Will Czarni Sosnowiec win on 2026-11-11?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$47.9

Smart Money Entry

94.8¢ → 100¢

+5% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,622

Combined PnL-$35.02

Yes3 traders

Total Value$42.63

Total Shares806

Combined PnL-$12.88

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 94.3¢	$704.65	$689.98	-$14.67	51% 1842-1797 (3639)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 96.3¢	$705.93	$682.13	-$23.81	56% 1553-1230 (2783)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 91.3¢	$186.62	$190.61	+$3.99	38% 137-222 (359)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$35.71	$35.83	+$0.12	45% 263-319 (582)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 90.5¢	$23.71	$25.01	+$1.3	37% 346-578 (924)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Noavg 95¢	$19	$18.6	-$0.4	28% 161-405 (566)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 97¢	$13.16	$11.72	-$1.44	31% 380-851 (1231)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$7.66	$6.7	-$0.96	30% 378-869 (1247)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.1¢	$12.14	$0.1	-$12.04	31% 385-869 (1254)

Flaznorp

Invested

$704.65

Value

$689.98

PnL

-$14.67

Record

51%

1842-1797 (3639)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$705.93

Value

$682.13

PnL

-$23.81

Record

56%

1553-1230 (2783)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$186.62

Value

$190.61

PnL

+$3.99

Record

38%

137-222 (359)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.71

Value

$35.83

PnL

+$0.12

Record

45%

263-319 (582)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$23.71

Value

$25.01

PnL

+$1.3

Record

37%

346-578 (924)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Invested

$19

Value

$18.6

PnL

-$0.4

Record

28%

161-405 (566)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$13.16

Value

$11.72

PnL

-$1.44

Record

31%

380-851 (1231)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.66

Value

$6.7

PnL

-$0.96

Record

30%

378-869 (1247)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.14

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$12.04

Record

31%

385-869 (1254)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.