Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $9 held · ends Dec 31

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$8.64

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Entry

6.9¢ → 0.1¢

-99% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$8.64

Total Shares17,278

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

67 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR	Yesavg 7.7¢	$489.93	$3.19	-$486.89	47% 85-95 (180)
HO HourglassCTR<$100	Yes	$2.69	$2.69	-$411.14	77% 8889-2658 (11547)
LO Logan.CTR	Yesavg 8.4¢	$0	$0.79	+$0.79	41% 648-925 (1573)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yes	$0.6	$0.6	-$91.63	52% 5046-4713 (9759)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yes	$0.52	$0.52	-$79.17	51% 2516-2391 (4907)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.6¢	$0	$0.44	+$0.44	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR	Yesavg 0.3¢	$295.11	$0.39	-$139.91	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
RA ratedCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.2¢	$3.27	$0.02	-$3.25	29% 2865-6952 (9817)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR

Yes

Invested

$489.93

Value

$3.19

PnL

-$486.89

Record

47%

85-95 (180)

HourglassCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.69

Value

$2.69

PnL

-$411.14

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

Logan.CTR

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.79

PnL

+$0.79

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

korda77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$91.63

Record

52%

5046-4713 (9759)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.52

Value

$0.52

PnL

-$79.17

Record

51%

2516-2391 (4907)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.44

PnL

+$0.44

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

Elias.ThornwellCTR

Yes

Invested

$295.11

Value

$0.39

PnL

-$139.91

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

ratedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.27

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.25

Record

29%

2865-6952 (9817)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

67 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.