Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 98¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 38%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$629.77

Smart Money Entry

95.2¢ → 98.3¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$847.25

Total Shares862

Combined PnL+$27.67

Yes5 traders

Total Value$211.43

Total Shares12,082

Combined PnL-$657.44

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

721h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

15 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 96.1¢	$650.29	$665.07	+$15.45	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
KI KiruaTrading	Noavg 91.7¢	$168.36	$180.58	+$12.22	57% 271-203 (474)
0X 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876CTR	Yesavg 7.3¢	$320.68	$76.98	-$243.68	45% 112-138 (250)
Contentious-DinnerdateCTR	Yesavg 8.5¢	$342.45	$70.87	-$271.52	50% 415-417 (832)
smellyEllieCTR	Yesavg 6.8¢	$151.1	$38.89	-$112.21	50% 970-988 (1958)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$29.08	$16.22	-$12.85	32% 4495-9638 (14133)
cambridgeisaacCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$25.65	$8.47	-$17.18	57% 1114-837 (1951)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$1.61	$1.6	-$0.01	39% 175-269 (444)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$650.29

Value

$665.07

PnL

+$15.45

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

KiruaTrading

Invested

$168.36

Value

$180.58

PnL

+$12.22

Record

57%

271-203 (474)

0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876CTR

Yes

Invested

$320.68

Value

$76.98

PnL

-$243.68

Record

45%

112-138 (250)

Contentious-DinnerdateCTR

Yes

Invested

$342.45

Value

$70.87

PnL

-$271.52

Record

50%

415-417 (832)

smellyEllieCTR

Yes

Invested

$151.1

Value

$38.89

PnL

-$112.21

Record

50%

970-988 (1958)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.08

Value

$16.22

PnL

-$12.85

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

cambridgeisaacCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.65

Value

$8.47

PnL

-$17.18

Record

57%

1114-837 (1951)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100

Invested

$1.61

Value

$1.6

PnL

-$0.01

Record

39%

175-269 (444)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

721h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

15 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.3%

98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.