Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 77¢ · $28K held · ends Jan 1, 2030

Yes24¢No76¢Ends Tue, Jan 1, 2030View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 38%

Total Value

$27.6K

Combined PnL

$207.25

Smart Money Entry

76¢ → 76.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$19.6K

Total Shares25,407

Combined PnL+$86.95

Yes5 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares34,098

Combined PnL+$120.3

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

706h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 6

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Car	Noavg 76¢	$19.2K	$19.3K	+$88.79	67% 4165-2026 (6191)
DR dromedaryyCTR	Yesavg 23.1¢	$7.4K	$7.6K	+$138.34	35% 35-65 (100)
LO Logan.CTR	Yesavg 25¢	$375.5	$352.97	-$22.53	41% 648-925 (1573)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 76.3¢	$164.19	$163.13	-$1.06	36% 16072-28083 (44155)
mr.ozi	Noavg 77¢	$120.86	$120.07	-$0.78	68% 1240-582 (1822)
DEGENKHANCTR<$100	Yesavg 20.7¢	$56.3	$59.22	+$2.92	66% 1107-565 (1672)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 21.4¢	$40.05	$40.83	+$0.78	53% 6690-5887 (12577)
DebosnysCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$6.65	$7.44	+$0.79	89% 1868-225 (2093)

Car

Invested

$19,190.38

Value

$19.3K

PnL

+$88.79

Record

67%

4165-2026 (6191)

dromedaryyCTR

Yes

Invested

$7,414.34

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$138.34

Record

35%

35-65 (100)

Logan.CTR

Yes

Invested

$375.5

Value

$352.97

PnL

-$22.53

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$164.19

Value

$163.13

PnL

-$1.06

Record

36%

16072-28083 (44155)

mr.ozi

Invested

$120.86

Value

$120.07

PnL

-$0.78

Record

68%

1240-582 (1822)

DEGENKHANCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$56.3

Value

$59.22

PnL

+$2.92

Record

66%

1107-565 (1672)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.05

Value

$40.83

PnL

+$0.78

Record

53%

6690-5887 (12577)

DebosnysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.65

Value

$7.44

PnL

+$0.79

Record

89%

1868-225 (2093)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

706h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 6

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.2%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.88

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.