Consensus PnL $885K · win rate 70% (975–409, n=1384) · PM monthly #89 · holds 15 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$884.9K
Record
975W / 409L
Win Rate
70.0%
of 1384 settled
Batting Avg
52.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#737
Source
PM monthly #89 + pinned
Trades
60,828
Markets
1,915
Volume
$20.9M
Top consensus positions
15 in listed consensus markets · 13 of 15 on the consensus side (87%)- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $71K · now 70¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (76% of 92)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $42K · now 71¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (82% of 108)
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?No $35K · now 89¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (55% of 38)
- Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes $17K · now 71¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (86% of 51)
- Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes $6.8K · now 17¢ · in at 16¢against the consensus (No)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?Yes $6.1K · now 91¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (64% of 11)
- Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes $5.1K · now 68¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (60% of 60)
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No $3.8K · now 77¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (79% of 56)
Specialties
1,565 settled consensus markets · held side won 72% at an average entry of 67¢- Entertainment
+23 pts
side won 95% of 22 · avg entry 72¢
ROI +10%
- Mentions
+7 pts
side won 75% of 483 · avg entry 67¢
ROI +6%
- Geopolitics
+4 pts
side won 81% of 368 · avg entry 77¢
ROI +3%
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 59% of 37 at an average 64¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 15%(won 13% of 242)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 47% of 151)
- 50–70¢: 15%(won 66% of 236)
- 70¢ and up: 60%(won 93% of 936)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.