Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 75¢ · $7K held · ends Dec 31
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Research candidate
Yes
8
Yes 63%
$7.1K
$7.41
69.5¢ → 75¢
+8% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
Research candidateYes at 75%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Late
4445h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
41 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Optimus- | Yesavg 62.2¢ | $2.7K | $3.1K | +$337.12 | 61% 1200-768 (1968) |
 KimchiCapital | Yesavg 77.8¢ | $2.6K | $2.4K | -$144.11 | 75% 540-176 (716) |
 PaddyAlpha | Yesavg 69.6¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$42.55 | 59% 986-684 (1670) |
 Ahpo | Yesavg 74.4¢ | $186.88 | $180.47 | -$6.41 | 87% 1622-251 (1873) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Yesavg 83.2¢ | $596.89 | $136.37 | -$98.37 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04CTR | Noavg 58¢ | $116 | $53 | -$63 | 88% 2229-292 (2521) |
 4751346CTR<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $99 | $39.75 | -$59.25 | 72% 1257-483 (1740) |
 viniiCTR<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $2.12 | $1 | -$1.13 | 74% 2792-1004 (3796) |
Optimus-Invested
$2,726.07
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$337.12
Record
61%
1200-768 (1968)
KimchiCapitalInvested
$2,590.71
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$144.11
Record
75%
540-176 (716)
PaddyAlphaInvested
$1,236.51
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$42.55
Record
59%
986-684 (1670)
AhpoInvested
$186.88
Value
$180.47
PnL
-$6.41
Record
87%
1622-251 (1873)
Invested
$596.89
Value
$136.37
PnL
-$98.37
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04CTRInvested
$116
Value
$53
PnL
-$63
Record
88%
2229-292 (2521)
4751346CTR<$100Invested
$99
Value
$39.75
PnL
-$59.25
Record
72%
1257-483 (1740)
viniiCTR<$100Invested
$2.12
Value
$1
PnL
-$1.13
Record
74%
2792-1004 (3796)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.