Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 80¢ · $7K held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes80¢No20¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

$1.7K

Smart Money Entry

63.6¢ → 79.9¢

+26% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes80%

No20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares8,219

Combined PnL+$1.8K

No4 traders

Total Value$88.29

Total Shares441

Combined PnL-$60.11

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

705h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

12 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Yesavg 69.1¢	$4.2K	$5.3K	+$1.2K	61% 21345-13641 (34986)
mombil	Yesavg 64.7¢	$594.96	$743.47	+$131.51	55% 1191-966 (2157)
Dragontree	Yesavg 4.6¢	$19.34	$339.46	+$312.36	58% 1250-888 (2138)
KimchiCapital	Yesavg 0.5¢	$1.1	$161.8	+$157	75% 540-176 (716)
Trading4FridgeCTR	Noavg 40.2¢	$104.89	$53.45	-$51.45	58% 928-661 (1589)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Noavg 32.5¢	$22.25	$22.38	+$0.13	39% 175-269 (444)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100	Noavg 48.4¢	$10.23	$6.45	-$3.79	50% 357-357 (714)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Noavg 38.6¢	$55.28	$6.01	-$5.01	76% 11354-3525 (14879)

balthazar

Yes

Invested

$4,152.51

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

61%

21345-13641 (34986)

mombil

Yes

Invested

$594.96

Value

$743.47

PnL

+$131.51

Record

55%

1191-966 (2157)

Dragontree

Yes

Invested

$19.34

Value

$339.46

PnL

+$312.36

Record

58%

1250-888 (2138)

KimchiCapital

Yes

Invested

$1.1

Value

$161.8

PnL

+$157

Record

75%

540-176 (716)

Trading4FridgeCTR

Invested

$104.89

Value

$53.45

PnL

-$51.45

Record

58%

928-661 (1589)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Invested

$22.25

Value

$22.38

PnL

+$0.13

Record

39%

175-269 (444)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100

Invested

$10.23

Value

$6.45

PnL

-$3.79

Record

50%

357-357 (714)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Invested

$55.28

Value

$6.01

PnL

-$5.01

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 80%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

705h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

12 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.5%

79.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.