Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (65%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T?
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 36¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 50%
$2.1K
$184.64
30.7¢ → 35.5¢
+16% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 36%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 65%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Late
721h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
25 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KimchiCapitalCTR | Yesavg 33¢ | $544.55 | $585.75 | +$41.2 | 75% 540-176 (716) |
DI Dimpled-FoalCTR | Yesavg 31¢ | $419.64 | $480.56 | +$60.92 | 54% 229-195 (424) |
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Noavg 62.4¢ | $454.51 | $469.56 | +$15.05 | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
 Contentious-DinnerdateCTR | Yesavg 26¢ | $260 | $355 | +$95 | 50% 415-417 (832) |
 2B9S | Noavg 73.3¢ | $185.48 | $151.57 | -$33.91 | 18% 3833-17376 (21209) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 64.6¢ | $51.3 | $50.38 | -$0.92 | 42% 5284-7234 (12518) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 41.4¢ | $11 | $17.75 | +$6.75 | 56% 15372-11923 (27295) |
 Car<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $13.85 | $14.41 | +$0.56 | 67% 4165-2026 (6191) |
KimchiCapitalCTRInvested
$544.55
Value
$585.75
PnL
+$41.2
Record
75%
540-176 (716)
Invested
$419.64
Value
$480.56
PnL
+$60.92
Record
54%
229-195 (424)
Invested
$454.51
Value
$469.56
PnL
+$15.05
Record
53%
1174-1056 (2230)
Contentious-DinnerdateCTRInvested
$260
Value
$355
PnL
+$95
Record
50%
415-417 (832)
2B9SInvested
$185.48
Value
$151.57
PnL
-$33.91
Record
18%
3833-17376 (21209)
Invested
$51.3
Value
$50.38
PnL
-$0.92
Record
42%
5284-7234 (12518)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100Invested
$11
Value
$17.75
PnL
+$6.75
Record
56%
15372-11923 (27295)
Car<$100Invested
$13.85
Value
$14.41
PnL
+$0.56
Record
67%
4165-2026 (6191)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.