Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (70%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 30¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes30¢No70¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$1.5K

Smart Money Entry

13¢ → 29.9¢

+131% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares9,087

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Late

702h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

16 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DEGENKHANCTR	Yesavg 10.9¢	$818.31	$1.9K	+$1.1K	66% 1107-565 (1672)
DI Dimpled-FoalCTR	Yesavg 18¢	$137.3	$230.69	+$92.24	54% 229-195 (424)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR	Yesavg 9.7¢	$62.8	$179.96	+$120.75	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 10.6¢	$73.95	$139.17	+$65.22	36% 16072-28083 (44155)
KimchiCapitalCTR	Yesavg 32.3¢	$108.95	$101.72	-$7.23	75% 540-176 (716)
AllByMyseIfCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$67.61	$97.41	+$29.31	65% 671-357 (1028)
libratus1CTR<$100	Yesavg 23.9¢	$47.8	$60.4	+$11.6	63% 642-372 (1014)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 20.2¢	$20.1	$30.09	+$9.83	32% 4495-9638 (14133)

DEGENKHANCTR

Yes

Invested

$818.31

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

66%

1107-565 (1672)

Dimpled-FoalCTR

Yes

Invested

$137.3

Value

$230.69

PnL

+$92.24

Record

54%

229-195 (424)

Elias.ThornwellCTR

Yes

Invested

$62.8

Value

$179.96

PnL

+$120.75

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$73.95

Value

$139.17

PnL

+$65.22

Record

36%

16072-28083 (44155)

KimchiCapitalCTR

Yes

Invested

$108.95

Value

$101.72

PnL

-$7.23

Record

75%

540-176 (716)

AllByMyseIfCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$67.61

Value

$97.41

PnL

+$29.31

Record

65%

671-357 (1028)

libratus1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.8

Value

$60.4

PnL

+$11.6

Record

63%

642-372 (1014)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.1

Value

$30.09

PnL

+$9.83

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Late

702h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

16 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.8%

29.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$214.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

314.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.