Will Arknights: Endfield win Best Mobile Game at the 2026 Game Awards?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 63¢ · $269 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes37¢No63¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$269.4

Combined PnL

$30.93

Smart Money Entry

64.1¢ → 63¢

-2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$166.8

Total Shares422

Combined PnL+$33.07

No4 traders

Total Value$102.59

Total Shares170

Combined PnL-$2.14

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Late

101h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR crckrCTR	Yesavg 25¢	$96.53	$121.05	+$24.52	31% 739-1614 (2353)
Anjun<$100	Noavg 71¢	$78.81	$67.16	-$9.44	55% 5194-4278 (9472)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yes	$33.18	$33.18	+$6.17	52% 160-150 (310)
RA rainbowlilies<$100	Noavg 61.5¢	$12.18	$12.75	+$0.57	39% 2908-4509 (7417)
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100	Yesavg 29.5¢	$10.19	$12.58	+$2.39	38% 1820-3001 (4821)
SN SnapElectionAvoider<$100	Noavg 60¢	$12	$12.1	+$0.6	47% 1359-1503 (2862)
GA Gaditima<$100	Noavg 28¢	$4.9	$10.59	+$6.13	48% 7433-8152 (15585)

crckrCTR

Yes

Invested

$96.53

Value

$121.05

PnL

+$24.52

Record

31%

739-1614 (2353)

Anjun<$100

Invested

$78.81

Value

$67.16

PnL

-$9.44

Record

55%

5194-4278 (9472)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.18

Value

$33.18

PnL

+$6.17

Record

52%

160-150 (310)

rainbowlilies<$100

Invested

$12.18

Value

$12.75

PnL

+$0.57

Record

39%

2908-4509 (7417)

BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.19

Value

$12.58

PnL

+$2.39

Record

38%

1820-3001 (4821)

SnapElectionAvoider<$100

Invested

$12

Value

$12.1

PnL

+$0.6

Record

47%

1359-1503 (2862)

Gaditima<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

$10.59

PnL

+$6.13

Record

48%

7433-8152 (15585)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 63%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Late

101h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.2%

63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$53.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

153.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.