Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 55¢ · $9K held · ends Feb 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 50%
$9.2K
$240.1
51.7¢ → 55¢
+6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Late
1058h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
14 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 aenews2 | Yesavg 51.4¢ | $4.3K | $4.6K | +$258.04 | 60% 1773-1174 (2947) |
 ImJustKenCTR | Noavg 46.2¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | -$49.23 | 53% 3037-2716 (5753) |
 eCash | Yesavg 53.3¢ | $790.8 | $781.04 | -$9.77 | 68% 331-155 (486) |
11 11122 | Yesavg 41¢ | $205 | $272.5 | +$67.5 | 44% 1401-1817 (3218) |
 GUHHH | Yesavg 62.3¢ | $311.71 | $272.5 | -$39.21 | 78% 879-250 (1129) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR | Noavg 41.4¢ | $192.44 | $184.17 | -$8.27 | 53% 6690-5887 (12577) |
12 123987456CTR | Noavg 37.9¢ | $104.76 | $125.68 | +$20.92 | 45% 1906-2351 (4257) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR | Noavg 45¢ | $110.05 | $98.55 | +$0.12 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
aenews2Invested
$4,306.16
Value
$4.6K
PnL
+$258.04
Record
60%
1773-1174 (2947)
ImJustKenCTRInvested
$2,915.89
Value
$2.9K
PnL
-$49.23
Record
53%
3037-2716 (5753)
eCashInvested
$790.8
Value
$781.04
PnL
-$9.77
Record
68%
331-155 (486)
Invested
$205
Value
$272.5
PnL
+$67.5
Record
44%
1401-1817 (3218)
GUHHHInvested
$311.71
Value
$272.5
PnL
-$39.21
Record
78%
879-250 (1129)
Invested
$192.44
Value
$184.17
PnL
-$8.27
Record
53%
6690-5887 (12577)
Invested
$104.76
Value
$125.68
PnL
+$20.92
Record
45%
1906-2351 (4257)
Invested
$110.05
Value
$98.55
PnL
+$0.12
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.