Will "Babydoll – Dominic Fike" be the #2 song for 2026?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 86¢ · $12K held · ends Feb 1, 2027

Yes86¢No14¢Ends Mon, Feb 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 43%

Total Value

$12.1K

Combined PnL

$2.3K

Smart Money Entry

77.3¢ → 85.5¢

+11% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes86%

No14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$11.8K

Total Shares13,837

Combined PnL+$2.4K

No4 traders

Total Value$225.24

Total Shares1,502

Combined PnL-$124.74

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

824h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

7 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BU buoys	Yesavg 80.8¢	$926.79	$8.2K	+$1.9K	45% 748-896 (1644)
SH shovelingdigging	Yesavg 69.2¢	$3.0K	$3.5K	+$435.93	63% 382-229 (611)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Yesavg 70.7¢	$112.47	$135.66	+$23.19	77% 12723-3885 (16608)
balthazarCTR	Noavg 17.8¢	$112.57	$94.93	-$17.64	52% 31052-29024 (60076)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Noavg 41.9¢	$175.11	$62.76	-$109.39	47% 1359-1503 (2862)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 13.8¢	$46.27	$50.4	+$2.45	53% 8618-7692 (16310)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100	No	$17.14	$17.14	-$0.16	51% 314-304 (618)

buoys

Yes

Invested

$926.79

Value

$8.2K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

45%

748-896 (1644)

shovelingdigging

Yes

Invested

$3,048.23

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$435.93

Record

63%

382-229 (611)

Elias.Thornwell

Yes

Invested

$112.47

Value

$135.66

PnL

+$23.19

Record

77%

12723-3885 (16608)

balthazarCTR

Invested

$112.57

Value

$94.93

PnL

-$17.64

Record

52%

31052-29024 (60076)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Invested

$175.11

Value

$62.76

PnL

-$109.39

Record

47%

1359-1503 (2862)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$46.27

Value

$50.4

PnL

+$2.45

Record

53%

8618-7692 (16310)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100

Invested

$17.14

Value

$17.14

PnL

-$0.16

Record

51%

314-304 (618)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 86%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

824h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

7 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.