Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 October 26-November 1?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 100%
$21.7K
$4.3K
65.8¢ → 99.1¢
+50% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 65%
Freshness
Late
127h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
7 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 justdance | Noavg 61.8¢ | $4.6K | $7.2K | +$2.6K | 52% 2726-2552 (5278) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 51.7¢ | $6.5K | $7.0K | +$494.8 | 66% 2458-1291 (3749) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 85.8¢ | $4.6K | $5.3K | +$703.8 | 62% 795-490 (1285) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 63.5¢ | $943.91 | $1.3K | +$339.41 | 59% 2238-1571 (3809) |
 Facaie | Noavg 97.3¢ | $525.42 | $535.14 | +$9.18 | 93% 1312-105 (1417) |
RI Rin2x | Noavg 97.6¢ | $195.2 | $198.2 | +$2.8 | 86% 2156-340 (2496) |
PH PhongLeXBT | No | $163.84 | $163.84 | +$128.85 | 49% 274-288 (562) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $52.59 | $52.59 | +$0 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
justdanceInvested
$4,625.04
Value
$7.2K
PnL
+$2.6K
Record
52%
2726-2552 (5278)
Invested
$6,498.53
Value
$7.0K
PnL
+$494.8
Record
66%
2458-1291 (3749)
Invested
$4,570.79
Value
$5.3K
PnL
+$703.8
Record
62%
795-490 (1285)
Invested
$943.91
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$339.41
Record
59%
2238-1571 (3809)
FacaieInvested
$525.42
Value
$535.14
PnL
+$9.18
Record
93%
1312-105 (1417)
Invested
$195.2
Value
$198.2
PnL
+$2.8
Record
86%
2156-340 (2496)
Invested
$163.84
Value
$163.84
PnL
+$128.85
Record
49%
274-288 (562)
Invested
$52.59
Value
$52.59
PnL
+$0
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.