Consensus PnL $134K · win rate 73% (262–98, n=360) · was PM monthly #993 · holds 9 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$133.7K
Record
262W / 98L
Win Rate
73.0%
of 360 settled
Batting Avg
72.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#628
Source
PM monthly #993
Trades
824
Markets
501
Volume
$565.7K
Top consensus positions
9 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 9 on the consensus side (33%)- Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?Yes $285 · now 6¢ · in at 4¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 October 26-November 1?No $164 · now 99¢with the consensus (100% of 8)
- Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?No $30 · now 28¢with the consensus (70% of 10)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 October 26-November 1?Yes $28 · now 1¢ · in at 3¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 1?No $18 · now 0¢ · in at 1¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be less than $1.25T?Yes $16 · now 3¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 October 26-November 1?Yes $14 · now 6¢ · in at 7¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 October 26-November 1?Yes $3 · now 0¢ · in at 0¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
306 settled consensus markets · held side won 74% at an average entry of 42¢- MMA
+48 pts
side won 100% of 17 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +31%
- Geopolitics
+47 pts
side won 82% of 22 · avg entry 35¢
ROI +23%
- Crypto
+29 pts
side won 72% of 162 · avg entry 43¢
ROI +23%
Weakest: Economy — held side won 42% of 12 at an average 43¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI +5%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 29%(won 61% of 89)
- 30–50¢: 26%(won 71% of 80)
- 50–70¢: 42%(won 82% of 129)
- 70¢ and up: 3%(won 100% of 8)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.