Consensus PnL $89K · win rate 36% (274–483, n=757) · PM monthly #80 · holds 31 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$88.8K
Record
274W / 483L
Win Rate
36.0%
of 757 settled
Batting Avg
8.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2527
Source
PM monthly #80
Record (90 d)
246/523 · 47%
Trades
5,366
Markets
1,593
Volume
$418.3K
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Top consensus positions
31 in listed consensus markets · 25 of 31 on the consensus side (81%)- Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?No $11K · now 61¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (78% of 59)
- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $9.5K · now 77¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (69% of 123)
- Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?No $6.8K · now 39¢ · in at 37¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $3.5K · now 24¢ · in at 28¢against the consensus (Yes)
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo $1.8K · now 95¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (72% of 123)
- Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?No $1.3K · now 57¢ · in at 58¢against the consensus (Yes)
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseNo $1.2K · now 82¢ · in at 79¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?No $695 · now 42¢ · in at 42¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
439 settled consensus markets · held side won 45% at an average entry of 46¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where pollo07's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Elections — held side won 39% of 89 at an average 42¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI +20%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 52%(won 1% of 227)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 45% of 11)
- 50–70¢: 2%(won 38% of 8)
- 70¢ and up: 44%(won 96% of 193)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.