Consensus PnL $119K · win rate 37% (269–454, n=723) · PM monthly #72 · holds 28 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$118.6K
Record
269W / 454L
Win Rate
37.0%
of 723 settled
Batting Avg
16.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2520
Source
PM monthly #72
Record (90 d)
218/475 · 46%
Trades
5,342
Markets
1,516
Volume
$467.2K
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Top consensus positions
28 in listed consensus markets · 27 of 28 on the consensus side (96%)- Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?No $13K · now 60¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (82% of 57)
- Will xAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes $766 · now 26¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (100% of 23)
- Will Kuo Hsi win the next Taipei Mayor election?Yes $11 · now 0¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (97% of 30)
- Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?No $3 · now 85¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (76% of 22)
- Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes $3 · now 0¢ · in at 4¢with the consensus (93% of 28)
- Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes $3 · now 0¢ · in at 4¢with the consensus (100% of 26)
- Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes $3 · now 0¢ · in at 4¢with the consensus (96% of 24)
- Will Ann Diener win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes $2 · now 0¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (96% of 25)
Specialties
409 settled consensus markets · held side won 44% at an average entry of 45¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where kaxel78's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Politics — held side won 92% of 12 at an average 93¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI −17%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 53%(won 2% of 216)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 60% of 10)
- 50–70¢: 2%(won 50% of 10)
- 70¢ and up: 42%(won 96% of 173)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.