Consensus PnL $108K · win rate 38% (173–288, n=461) · PM monthly #106 · holds 18 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$108.1K
Record
173W / 288L
Win Rate
38.0%
of 461 settled
Batting Avg
17.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2501
Source
PM monthly #106
Record (90 d)
137/348 · 39%
Trades
4,486
Markets
1,180
Volume
$374.0K
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Top consensus positions
18 in listed consensus markets · 8 of 18 on the consensus side (44%)- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $14K · now 74¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (77% of 145)
- Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?No $8.7K · now 61¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (81% of 58)
- Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?No $5.6K · now 39¢ · in at 38¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $5.0K · now 28¢ · in at 28¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?No $2.6K · now 66¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (51% of 95)
- Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?No $2.2K · now 65¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (66% of 89)
- Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?No $1.4K · now 36¢ · in at 36¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?No $1.3K · now 36¢ · in at 38¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
264 settled consensus markets · held side won 35% at an average entry of 36¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where Vale54holi's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Mentions — held side won 78% of 40 at an average 78¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI +11%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 61%(won 1% of 161)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 14% of 7)
- 50–70¢: 4%(won 73% of 11)
- 70¢ and up: 32%(won 96% of 85)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.