Consensus PnL $114K · win rate 36% (164–293, n=457) · PM monthly #103 · holds 28 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$113.7K
Record
164W / 293L
Win Rate
36.0%
of 457 settled
Batting Avg
20.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2540
Source
PM monthly #103
Record (90 d)
148/366 · 40%
Trades
4,254
Markets
1,159
Volume
$409.1K
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Top consensus positions
28 in listed consensus markets · 11 of 28 on the consensus side (39%)- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $10K · now 76¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (76% of 144)
- Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?No $8.4K · now 61¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (81% of 58)
- Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?No $5.6K · now 40¢ · in at 37¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $4.0K · now 25¢ · in at 31¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?No $2.5K · now 95¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (67% of 58)
- Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?No $2.4K · now 65¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (67% of 89)
- Will an Independent win the Montana Senate race in 2026?No $1.6K · now 91¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (79% of 28)
- Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?No $1.4K · now 36¢ · in at 38¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
331 settled consensus markets · held side won 41% at an average entry of 42¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where Likaseent's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 87% of 23 at an average 87¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI +30%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 56%(won 1% of 187)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 14% of 7)
- 50–70¢: 3%(won 70% of 10)
- 70¢ and up: 38%(won 98% of 127)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.