Will Democrats sweep the Michigan Senate and Governor elections?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 78¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4

Yes78¢No22¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$217.87

Smart Money Entry

66.4¢ → 78¢

+17% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes78%

No22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,636

Combined PnL+$291.16

No2 traders

Total Value$157.87

Total Shares718

Combined PnL-$73.3

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Late

665h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
bernardbulletin	Yesavg 66.8¢	$558.51	$652.3	+$89.61	69% 987-450 (1437)
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836	Yesavg 63¢	$449.15	$556.09	+$106.94	61% 203-132 (335)
CO Contestable-Parfait	Yesavg 67.7¢	$283.87	$326.89	+$43.02	38% 20-32 (52)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 65.8¢	$187.55	$210.15	+$22.6	36% 16059-28074 (44133)
wagwanshawty	Yesavg 75.7¢	$152.45	$157.16	+$5.72	— 10-5 (15)
ScottyNooo	Yesavg 66.2¢	$130.55	$153.81	+$23.26	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR	Noavg 26.9¢	$54.29	$148.89	-$73.1	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Noavg 22¢	$9.18	$8.98	-$0.2	40% 174-265 (439)

bernardbulletin

Yes

Invested

$558.51

Value

$652.3

PnL

+$89.61

Record

69%

987-450 (1437)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836

Yes

Invested

$449.15

Value

$556.09

PnL

+$106.94

Record

61%

203-132 (335)

Contestable-Parfait

Yes

Invested

$283.87

Value

$326.89

PnL

+$43.02

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$187.55

Value

$210.15

PnL

+$22.6

Record

36%

16059-28074 (44133)

wagwanshawty

Yes

Invested

$152.45

Value

$157.16

PnL

+$5.72

Record

—

10-5 (15)

ScottyNooo

Yes

Invested

$130.55

Value

$153.81

PnL

+$23.26

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

peepeepooppoopCTR

Invested

$54.29

Value

$148.89

PnL

-$73.1

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Invested

$9.18

Value

$8.98

PnL

-$0.2

Record

40%

174-265 (439)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 78%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Late

665h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.7%

78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.