Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?
1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (13%) · No at 99¢ · $1K held · ends Apr 19, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 13%
$1.5K
$53.81
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+2 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
4874h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
24 consensus flips
13% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 96.5¢ | $1.2K | $1.4K | +$40.74 | 76% 11352-3524 (14876) |
FL flawfenceCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $62.91 | $68.45 | +$5.54 | 46% 271-319 (590) |
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $1.15 | $15.36 | -$0.53 | 39% 1780-2832 (4612) |
 perfectnostalgiaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $4 | $9 | +$4.5 | 55% 338-273 (611) |
LE leegunnerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $3.7 | $8.32 | +$3.23 | 41% 1281-1829 (3110) |
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100 | Yes | $1.35 | $1.35 | +$0.1 | 7% 14-187 (201) |
TY TyshaCTR | Yes | $651.36 | $0.86 | -$0.03 | 72% 8306-3183 (11489) |
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $0.01 | $0.26 | +$0.25 | 33% 6263-12990 (19253) |
Invested
$1,210.72
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$40.74
Record
76%
11352-3524 (14876)
Invested
$62.91
Value
$68.45
PnL
+$5.54
Record
46%
271-319 (590)
Invested
$1.15
Value
$15.36
PnL
-$0.53
Record
39%
1780-2832 (4612)
perfectnostalgiaCTR<$100Invested
$4
Value
$9
PnL
+$4.5
Record
55%
338-273 (611)
Invested
$3.7
Value
$8.32
PnL
+$3.23
Record
41%
1281-1829 (3110)
Invested
$1.35
Value
$1.35
PnL
+$0.1
Record
7%
14-187 (201)
Invested
$651.36
Value
$0.86
PnL
-$0.03
Record
72%
8306-3183 (11489)
Invested
$0.01
Value
$0.26
PnL
+$0.25
Record
33%
6263-12990 (19253)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.