Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $16 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 88%
$15.61
-$186.69
0.9¢ → 0.1¢
-95% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 54%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
171 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100 | Yes | $3.81 | $3.81 | -$129.99 | 7% 14-187 (201) |
RA rated<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $3.38 | $3.39 | +$0.01 | 29% 2865-6952 (9817) |
0X 0x62764005C3F58450d21DA9984F6eab56cF3c2Dd9-1765423921985CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $0 | $2.27 | +$2.27 | 64% 154-88 (242) |
AN anoin123CTR<$100 | Yes | $2.07 | $2.07 | +$2.07 | 47% 476-535 (1011) |
 pup1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $42.71 | $1.5 | -$41.21 | 46% 1978-2361 (4339) |
 ImJustKenCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $12.5 | $1.25 | -$11.25 | 53% 3037-2716 (5753) |
 ImbaferCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $8.95 | $0.3 | -$8.64 | 56% 238-189 (427) |
 flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $0 | $0.05 | +$0.05 | 39% 965-1508 (2473) |
Invested
$3.81
Value
$3.81
PnL
-$129.99
Record
7%
14-187 (201)
Invested
$3.38
Value
$3.39
PnL
+$0.01
Record
29%
2865-6952 (9817)
Invested
$0
Value
$2.27
PnL
+$2.27
Record
64%
154-88 (242)
Invested
$2.07
Value
$2.07
PnL
+$2.07
Record
47%
476-535 (1011)
pup1CTR<$100Invested
$42.71
Value
$1.5
PnL
-$41.21
Record
46%
1978-2361 (4339)
ImJustKenCTR<$100Invested
$12.5
Value
$1.25
PnL
-$11.25
Record
53%
3037-2716 (5753)
ImbaferCTR<$100Invested
$8.95
Value
$0.3
PnL
-$8.64
Record
56%
238-189 (427)
flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100Invested
$0
Value
$0.05
PnL
+$0.05
Record
39%
965-1508 (2473)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.