Consensus PnL $331K · win rate 39% (1107–1702, n=2809) · PM monthly #469 · holds 12 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$331.0K
Record
1107W / 1702L
Win Rate
39.0%
of 2809 settled
Batting Avg
58.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2109
Source
PM monthly #469 + pinned
Trades
147,682
Markets
4,900
Volume
$23.0M
Top consensus positions
12 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 12 on the consensus side (33%)- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Yes $1.1K · now 11¢ · in at 13¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Yes $440 · now 45¢ · in at 45¢with the consensus (67% of 13)
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?Yes $330 · now 3¢ · in at 8¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes $235 · now 6¢ · in at 8¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Yes $150 · now 14¢ · in at 12¢against the consensus (No)
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?Yes $90 · now 9¢ · in at 17¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Yes $90 · now 5¢ · in at 24¢against the consensus (No)
- Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?Yes $43 · now 3¢ · in at 5¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
3,912 settled consensus markets · held side won 41% at an average entry of 42¢- NFL
+9 pts
side won 60% of 73 · avg entry 52¢
ROI 0%
- MMA
+3 pts
side won 51% of 333 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +6%
- Politics
+5 pts
side won 47% of 143 · avg entry 42¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: Esports — held side won 50% of 584 at an average 53¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI −2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 40%(won 7% of 1565)
- 30–50¢: 17%(won 40% of 684)
- 50–70¢: 22%(won 61% of 875)
- 70¢ and up: 20%(won 88% of 788)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.