Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $50K held · ends Nov 8, 2028
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 88%
$50.2K
-$375.19
35.9¢ → 0.3¢
-99% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
354 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Barkshire-HathawayCTR | Yesavg 50¢ | $50.0K | $50.0K | +$0 | 64% 1093-623 (1716) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | Yes | $172.22 | $172.22 | -$275.79 | 72% 6830-2625 (9455) |
11 11122CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $75.47 | $37.01 | -$59.36 | 44% 1401-1817 (3218) |
 DonkovCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $45 | $15 | -$30 | 71% 968-396 (1364) |
FA failstoberCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $13.5 | $7.8 | -$8.82 | 26% 351-985 (1336) |
 PaddyAlpha<$100 | Noavg 97.1¢ | $3.97 | $4.08 | +$0.11 | 59% 986-684 (1670) |
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.86 | $0.86 | -$1.38 | 7% 14-187 (201) |
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.04 | $0.06 | +$0.06 | 33% 6263-12990 (19253) |
Barkshire-HathawayCTRInvested
$50,000
Value
$50.0K
PnL
+$0
Record
64%
1093-623 (1716)
Invested
$172.22
Value
$172.22
PnL
-$275.79
Record
72%
6830-2625 (9455)
Invested
$75.47
Value
$37.01
PnL
-$59.36
Record
44%
1401-1817 (3218)
DonkovCTR<$100Invested
$45
Value
$15
PnL
-$30
Record
71%
968-396 (1364)
Invested
$13.5
Value
$7.8
PnL
-$8.82
Record
26%
351-985 (1336)
PaddyAlpha<$100Invested
$3.97
Value
$4.08
PnL
+$0.11
Record
59%
986-684 (1670)
Invested
$0.86
Value
$0.86
PnL
-$1.38
Record
7%
14-187 (201)
Invested
$0.04
Value
$0.06
PnL
+$0.06
Record
33%
6263-12990 (19253)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.