Will France win 2026-27 Nations League Group A1?

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (29%) · Yes at 83¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 2

Yes83¢No17¢Ends Wed, Dec 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 29%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$20.22

Smart Money Entry

80.7¢ → 82.5¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes83%

No18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,720

Combined PnL+$49.29

No5 traders

Total Value$82.02

Total Shares469

Combined PnL-$29.07

Yes — 29%No — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

35h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
P1 P1kaso	Yesavg 80.5¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$51.73	63% 783-469 (1252)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Yesavg 83.8¢	$160.1	$157.66	-$2.44	27% 6849-18792 (25641)
extractive-manateeCTR<$100	Noavg 22.5¢	$67.6	$52.5	-$15.1	33% 541-1086 (1627)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 19.8¢	$16.8	$14.87	-$1.93	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 30.7¢	$18.4	$10.5	-$7.9	49% 8853-9359 (18212)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$6.43	$3.21	-$3.21	59% 11839-8177 (20016)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$1.86	$0.93	-$0.93	32% 2522-5398 (7920)

P1kaso

Yes

Invested

$2,034.83

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$51.73

Record

63%

783-469 (1252)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Yes

Invested

$160.1

Value

$157.66

PnL

-$2.44

Record

27%

6849-18792 (25641)

extractive-manateeCTR<$100

Invested

$67.6

Value

$52.5

PnL

-$15.1

Record

33%

541-1086 (1627)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$16.8

Value

$14.87

PnL

-$1.93

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$18.4

Value

$10.5

PnL

-$7.9

Record

49%

8853-9359 (18212)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$6.43

Value

$3.21

PnL

-$3.21

Record

59%

11839-8177 (20016)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$1.86

Value

$0.93

PnL

-$0.93

Record

32%

2522-5398 (7920)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 83%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

35h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.