Will Hyperliquid dip to $50 by December 31, 2026?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 94¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
🔬
Research candidate
No
8
No 88%
$3.6K
$491.71
79.9¢ → 93.5¢
+17% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
Research candidateNo at 94%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 61%
Freshness
Late
1654h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AM amis | Noavg 70.6¢ | $1.1K | $1.4K | +$350.75 | 88% 249-34 (283) |
DF DFV2 | Noavg 87.5¢ | $699.35 | $746.89 | +$47.54 | 91% 198-19 (217) |
C0 C03B | Noavg 93¢ | $634.5 | $637.91 | +$3.41 | 85% 719-126 (845) |
DI Dimpled-Foal | Noavg 76.2¢ | $327.83 | $382.15 | +$70.36 | 54% 229-195 (424) |
OE oegdatam | Noavg 89.5¢ | $268.13 | $280.08 | +$11.95 | 87% 149-22 (171) |
LA Lasting-Dessert<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $36.56 | $67.02 | +$30.46 | 89% 563-67 (630) |
TO Tokor<$100 | Noavg 79.5¢ | $32.51 | $38.24 | +$5.73 | 62% 795-490 (1285) |
 XAE12ArchangelCTR<$100 | Yesavg 35¢ | $35 | $6.5 | -$28.5 | 66% 784-407 (1191) |
Invested
$1,079.6
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$350.75
Record
88%
249-34 (283)
Invested
$699.35
Value
$746.89
PnL
+$47.54
Record
91%
198-19 (217)
Invested
$634.5
Value
$637.91
PnL
+$3.41
Record
85%
719-126 (845)
Invested
$327.83
Value
$382.15
PnL
+$70.36
Record
54%
229-195 (424)
Invested
$268.13
Value
$280.08
PnL
+$11.95
Record
87%
149-22 (171)
Invested
$36.56
Value
$67.02
PnL
+$30.46
Record
89%
563-67 (630)
Invested
$32.51
Value
$38.24
PnL
+$5.73
Record
62%
795-490 (1285)
XAE12ArchangelCTR<$100Invested
$35
Value
$6.5
PnL
-$28.5
Record
66%
784-407 (1191)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.