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93
Consensus PnL $39K · win rate 49% (52–54, n=106) · PM monthly #217 · holds 24 consensus positions
0x934a3755...fd4ca684Polymarket
🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$39.4K
Record
52W / 54L
Win Rate
49.0%
of 106 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1854
Source
PM monthly #217
Trades
45
Markets
145
Volume
$392.7K
Top consensus positions
24 in listed consensus markets · 18 of 24 on the consensus side (75%)- Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Yes $64K · now 74¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (78% of 27)
- Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Yes $30K · now 75¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (56% of 39)
- Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Yes $21K · now 82¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (50% of 48)
- Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Yes $9.7K · now 75¢ · in at 79¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $572 · now 73¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (75% of 80)
- Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes $504 · now 68¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (57% of 63)
- Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?Yes $178 · now 65¢ · in at 70¢against the consensus (No)
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?No $161 · now 81¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (71% of 18)
Specialties
68 settled consensus markets · held side won 84% at an average entry of 58¢- Esports
+31 pts
side won 88% of 49 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +26%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 7%(won 60% of 5)
- 30–50¢: 21%(won 79% of 14)
- 50–70¢: 46%(won 90% of 31)
- 70¢ and up: 26%(won 83% of 18)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.