Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most receiving yards?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 67¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 27, 2027

Yes67¢No33¢Ends Wed, Jan 27, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$168.65

Smart Money Entry

40.9¢ → 66.5¢

+63% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes67%

No34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$449.65

Total Shares696

Combined PnL+$172.21

No2 traders

Total Value$11.28

Total Shares30

Combined PnL-$3.56

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Late

231h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 52.7¢	$1.1K	$554.43	+$89.22	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 39.6¢	$220.08	$347.33	+$189.64
└ No leg	Noavg 52.7¢	$291.18	$207.1	-$100.42
clazzy1	Yesavg 42.4¢	$197.38	$291.25	+$107.85	64% 484-268 (752)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 56.5¢	$162.47	$134.04	-$3.95	14% 461-2758 (3219)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 46.3¢	$62.12	$83.78	+$21.48
└ No leg	Noavg 56.5¢	$75.77	$50.27	-$25.43
DEGENKHAN<$100	Yesavg 30.9¢	$37.84	$80.72	+$42.88	66% 1153-588 (1741)
AB ABC12345654321	Yesavg 47.6¢	$209.51	$70.95	+$18.88	48% 1884-2013 (3897)
ND ndb1CTR<$100	Noavg 50¢	$12.54	$9.41	-$3.64	66% 940-495 (1435)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 40.4¢	$7.81	$6.74	+$2.6	77% 12312-3779 (16091)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$1.8	$1.88	+$0.07	20% 2590-10277 (12867)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$1,075.29

Value

$554.43

PnL

+$89.22

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

Both legs:

Yes$220.0839.6¢+$189.64

No$291.1852.7¢-$100.42

clazzy1

Yes

Invested

$197.38

Value

$291.25

PnL

+$107.85

Record

64%

484-268 (752)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$162.47

Value

$134.04

PnL

-$3.95

Record

14%

461-2758 (3219)

Both legs:

Yes$62.1246.3¢+$21.48

No$75.7756.5¢-$25.43

DEGENKHAN<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.84

Value

$80.72

PnL

+$42.88

Record

66%

1153-588 (1741)

ABC12345654321

Yes

Invested

$209.51

Value

$70.95

PnL

+$18.88

Record

48%

1884-2013 (3897)

ndb1CTR<$100

Invested

$12.54

Value

$9.41

PnL

-$3.64

Record

66%

940-495 (1435)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.81

Value

$6.74

PnL

+$2.6

Record

77%

12312-3779 (16091)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$1.8

Value

$1.88

PnL

+$0.07

Record

20%

2590-10277 (12867)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 67%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Late

231h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.