Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (75%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Jeremiah Smith win the 2026 Heisman Trophy?
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (29%) · Yes at 25¢ · $88K held
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 29%
$87.5K
$-51.9K
57.6¢ → 25¢
-57% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 25%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
369h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
29% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CO cosmicxbtCTR | Yesavg 57.7¢ | $115.4K | $43.7K | $-67.0K | 71% 29-12 (41) |
 CUTJALENHURTS | Noavg 48.9¢ | $25.0K | $39.8K | +$13.8K | 52% 5926-5526 (11452) |
 macrosteaks | Noavg 43.5¢ | $1.1K | $2.2K | +$895.44 | 55% 3435-2832 (6267) |
 Anjun | Noavg 47¢ | $476.71 | $791.13 | +$319.5 | 55% 5006-4068 (9074) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938 | Noavg 44.1¢ | $1.1K | $692.8 | +$447.43 | 45% 2406-2980 (5386) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 48¢ | $862.55 | $334.5 | -$389.12 | 35% 17563-32834 (50397) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $37.5 | $39 | +$1.5 | 20% 2469-9863 (12332) |
Invested
$115,404.58
Value
$43.7K
PnL
$-67.0K
Record
71%
29-12 (41)
CUTJALENHURTSInvested
$24,973.5
Value
$39.8K
PnL
+$13.8K
Record
52%
5926-5526 (11452)
macrosteaksInvested
$1,103.53
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$895.44
Record
55%
3435-2832 (6267)
AnjunInvested
$476.71
Value
$791.13
PnL
+$319.5
Record
55%
5006-4068 (9074)
Invested
$1,105.5
Value
$692.8
PnL
+$447.43
Record
45%
2406-2980 (5386)
Invested
$862.55
Value
$334.5
PnL
-$389.12
Record
35%
17563-32834 (50397)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$37.5
Value
$39
PnL
+$1.5
Record
20%
2469-9863 (12332)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
25.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.