Will Jeremiyah Love win the 2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 99¢ · $3K held · ends Mar 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Mar 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$27

Smart Money Entry

78.3¢ → 99.2¢

+27% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,308

Combined PnL+$424.76

Yes3 traders

Total Value$339.85

Total Shares2,345

Combined PnL-$397.76

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Late

53h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AU auros2	Noavg 77.8¢	$544.99	$694.81	+$149.81	— 4-0 (4)
Hyperlong	Noavg 78.9¢	$379.1	$503.7	+$124.6	47% 317-362 (679)
ND ndb1	Noavg 71.4¢	$340.54	$473.01	+$132.47	65% 957-513 (1470)
Istaroth	Noavg 83.6¢	$381.95	$376.62	-$1.13	14% 513-3102 (3615)
AN ancianoCTR	Yesavg 22.4¢	$284.86	$318.63	-$418.36	53% 1393-1213 (2606)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 88.5¢	$129.66	$143.24	+$13.58	45% 2914-3563 (6477)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.29	$21.2	+$20.91	20% 2785-10964 (13749)
CUTJALENHURTS<$100	Noavg 72¢	$11.67	$17.1	+$5.43	52% 6019-5625 (11644)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$0.32	$0.01	-$0.31	25% 1751-5373 (7124)

auros2

Invested

$544.99

Value

$694.81

PnL

+$149.81

Record

—

4-0 (4)

Hyperlong

Invested

$379.1

Value

$503.7

PnL

+$124.6

Record

47%

317-362 (679)

ndb1

Invested

$340.54

Value

$473.01

PnL

+$132.47

Record

65%

957-513 (1470)

Istaroth

Invested

$381.95

Value

$376.62

PnL

-$1.13

Record

14%

513-3102 (3615)

ancianoCTR

Yes

Invested

$284.86

Value

$318.63

PnL

-$418.36

Record

53%

1393-1213 (2606)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$129.66

Value

$143.24

PnL

+$13.58

Record

45%

2914-3563 (6477)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.29

Value

$21.2

PnL

+$20.91

Record

20%

2785-10964 (13749)

CUTJALENHURTS<$100

Invested

$11.67

Value

$17.1

PnL

+$5.43

Record

52%

6019-5625 (11644)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.32

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.31

Record

25%

1751-5373 (7124)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Late

53h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.