Will Joe Burrow win the 2026 NFL MVP?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 66¢ · $1K held · ends Mar 1, 2027

Yes34¢No66¢Ends Mon, Mar 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$16.22

Smart Money Entry

68.3¢ → 66¢

-3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes34%

No66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$943.37

Total Shares1,418

Combined PnL-$24.92

Yes1 trader

Total Value$220.53

Total Shares651

Combined PnL+$41.14

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Late

711h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AU auros2	Noavg 70.4¢	$404.01	$361.79	-$17.77	84% 66-13 (79)
Haradwaith	Noavg 67¢	$235.06	$232.02	-$3.04	55% 48-40 (88)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 29.4¢	$250.6	$220.53	+$41.14	39% 1055-1631 (2686)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 67.8¢	$152.13	$148.22	-$3.9	41% 3167-4511 (7678)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 67¢	$106.52	$105.09	-$1.43	—
probability<$100	Noavg 64.7¢	$61.47	$63.65	+$2.19	39% 9-14 (23)
UbuntuTrading<$100	Noavg 69.2¢	$29.65	$28.7	-$0.94	47% 1611-1838 (3449)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 67.1¢	$3.9	$3.89	-$0.01	85% 28-5 (33)

auros2

Invested

$404.01

Value

$361.79

PnL

-$17.77

Record

84%

66-13 (79)

Haradwaith

Invested

$235.06

Value

$232.02

PnL

-$3.04

Record

55%

48-40 (88)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$250.6

Value

$220.53

PnL

+$41.14

Record

39%

1055-1631 (2686)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$152.13

Value

$148.22

PnL

-$3.9

Record

41%

3167-4511 (7678)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$106.52

Value

$105.09

PnL

-$1.43

Record

—

probability<$100

Invested

$61.47

Value

$63.65

PnL

+$2.19

Record

39%

9-14 (23)

UbuntuTrading<$100

Invested

$29.65

Value

$28.7

PnL

-$0.94

Record

47%

1611-1838 (3449)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$3.9

Value

$3.89

PnL

-$0.01

Record

85%

28-5 (33)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Late

711h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.1%

66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$46.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

146.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.