Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $149 held · ends Nov 8, 2028
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 88%
$149.37
$-1.4K
0.8¢ → 0.1¢
-94% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-5 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Late
4874h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
173 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Q9 Q96s3kwozynxpauCTR | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $1.1K | $91.6 | -$988.88 | 41% 166-240 (406) |
CO cocococococo<$100 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $34.55 | $34.98 | +$0.44 | 52% 1665-1535 (3200) |
 mombilCTR | Yesavg 1¢ | $300 | $15 | -$285 | 55% 1191-966 (2157) |
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $50.55 | $3.24 | -$47.39 | 47% 83-94 (177) |
 DonkovCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $45 | $2.5 | -$42.5 | 71% 968-396 (1364) |
FA failstoberCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $12.97 | $0.82 | +$0.82 | 26% 351-985 (1336) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR | Yesavg 1¢ | $1.1K | $0.73 | -$29.19 | 76% 11352-3524 (14876) |
LO Logan.CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $0 | $0.5 | +$0.5 | 41% 648-925 (1573) |
Invested
$1,080.47
Value
$91.6
PnL
-$988.88
Record
41%
166-240 (406)
Invested
$34.55
Value
$34.98
PnL
+$0.44
Record
52%
1665-1535 (3200)
mombilCTRInvested
$300
Value
$15
PnL
-$285
Record
55%
1191-966 (2157)
Invested
$50.55
Value
$3.24
PnL
-$47.39
Record
47%
83-94 (177)
DonkovCTR<$100Invested
$45
Value
$2.5
PnL
-$42.5
Record
71%
968-396 (1364)
Invested
$12.97
Value
$0.82
PnL
+$0.82
Record
26%
351-985 (1336)
Invested
$1,055.92
Value
$0.73
PnL
-$29.19
Record
76%
11352-3524 (14876)
Invested
$0
Value
$0.5
PnL
+$0.5
Record
41%
648-925 (1573)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.