Consensus PnL $181K · win rate 40% (87–133, n=220) · hand-picked wallet · holds 30 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$180.6K
Record
87W / 133L
Win Rate
40.0%
of 220 settled
Batting Avg
57.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2099
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
993,044
Markets
559
Volume
$6.6M
Top consensus positions
30 in listed consensus markets · 29 of 30 on the consensus side (97%)- Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $627 · now 0¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (100% of 13)
- Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $590 · now 0¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (100% of 13)
- Will James Fishback win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $517 · now 0¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (100% of 13)
- Will Candace Owens win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $334 · now 0¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (100% of 10)
- Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $229 · now 0¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (100% of 10)
- Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $228 · now 0¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (100% of 10)
- Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $214 · now 0¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (90% of 10)
- Will John McEntee win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $189 · now 0¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (100% of 14)
Specialties
248 settled consensus markets · held side won 22% at an average entry of 22¢- Finance
+23 pts
side won 55% of 11 · avg entry 32¢
ROI +23%
- Politics
+18 pts
side won 67% of 15 · avg entry 48¢
ROI 0%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 54% of 28 at an average 64¢ entry (−11 pts against the price), ROI −7%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 76%(won 4% of 188)
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 42% of 12)
- 50–70¢: 3%(won 71% of 7)
- 70¢ and up: 17%(won 90% of 41)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.