Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 94¢ · $7K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

$986

Smart Money Entry

77.3¢ → 93.7¢

+21% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$6.2K

Total Shares6,668

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Yes3 traders

Total Value$264.96

Total Shares3,992

Combined PnL-$130.15

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

4877h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (7 on No) and the top 1000 (3 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 3

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI simpleman	Noavg 81.3¢	$2.2K	$2.5K	+$331.21	47% 456-520 (976)
mombil	Noavg 68¢	$136	$1.3K	+$380.47	55% 1191-966 (2157)
HO HotDogs	Noavg 74.3¢	$968.5	$1.2K	+$251.62	94% 442-28 (470)
AngryRhino	Noavg 80¢	$800	$936	+$136.5	69% 133-59 (192)
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04	Noavg 87.9¢	$270.9	$269.85	+$16.34	88% 2229-292 (2521)
bernardbulletinCTR	Yesavg 10.3¢	$330.34	$210.06	-$120.27	69% 987-450 (1437)
CarCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.5¢	$43.34	$42.1	-$0.57	67% 4165-2026 (6191)
nicoco89CTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$22	$12.8	-$9.3	65% 1075-583 (1658)

simpleman

Invested

$2,187.91

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$331.21

Record

47%

456-520 (976)

mombil

Invested

$136

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$380.47

Record

55%

1191-966 (2157)

HotDogs

Invested

$968.5

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$251.62

Record

94%

442-28 (470)

AngryRhino

Invested

$800

Value

$936

PnL

+$136.5

Record

69%

133-59 (192)

95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04

Invested

$270.9

Value

$269.85

PnL

+$16.34

Record

88%

2229-292 (2521)

bernardbulletinCTR

Yes

Invested

$330.34

Value

$210.06

PnL

-$120.27

Record

69%

987-450 (1437)

CarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.34

Value

$42.1

PnL

-$0.57

Record

67%

4165-2026 (6191)

nicoco89CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22

Value

$12.8

PnL

-$9.3

Record

65%

1075-583 (1658)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

4877h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (7 on No) and the top 1000 (3 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 3

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.9%

93.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.