Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Karim López win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $726 held · ends May 31, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 100%
$726.14
-$14.85
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Late
105h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
4 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fundCTR | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $0.38 | $289.92 | -$6.91 | 53% 12604-11065 (23669) |
RA rainbowliliesCTR | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $12.07 | $247.5 | -$2.88 | 39% 2908-4509 (7417) |
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $0.65 | $69.59 | -$1.67 | 27% 2550-6957 (9507) |
NO northstockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $2.79 | $49.49 | -$0.96 | 40% 256-391 (647) |
AU auros2CTR<$100 | Yes | $26.26 | $26.26 | -$0.63 | — 6-1 (7) |
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $1.02 | $20.79 | -$0.35 | 32% 3291-7156 (10447) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.06 | $16.63 | -$0.4 | 42% 923-1279 (2202) |
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100 | Yes | $80.92 | $5.96 | -$1.06 | 49% 6592-6945 (13537) |
Invested
$0.38
Value
$289.92
PnL
-$6.91
Record
53%
12604-11065 (23669)
Invested
$12.07
Value
$247.5
PnL
-$2.88
Record
39%
2908-4509 (7417)
Invested
$0.65
Value
$69.59
PnL
-$1.67
Record
27%
2550-6957 (9507)
Invested
$2.79
Value
$49.49
PnL
-$0.96
Record
40%
256-391 (647)
Invested
$26.26
Value
$26.26
PnL
-$0.63
Record
—
6-1 (7)
Invested
$1.02
Value
$20.79
PnL
-$0.35
Record
32%
3291-7156 (10447)
Invested
$0.06
Value
$16.63
PnL
-$0.4
Record
42%
923-1279 (2202)
Invested
$80.92
Value
$5.96
PnL
-$1.06
Record
49%
6592-6945 (13537)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.