Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 76¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 29

Yes76¢No24¢Ends Sun, Nov 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

Total Value

$17.4K

Combined PnL

$32.7

Smart Money Entry

74.9¢ → 76¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes76%

No24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$17.4K

Total Shares22,922

Combined PnL+$31.31

No3 traders

Total Value$6.34

Total Shares28

Combined PnL+$1.4

Yes — 63%No — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

4872h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on Yes) and the top 1000 (3 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 3

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AL alwaysOn	Yesavg 69.9¢	$8.2K	$8.9K	+$716.65	77% 632-185 (817)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Yesavg 84.1¢	$6.5K	$5.7K	-$828.32	56% 15372-11923 (27295)
zxdfbdfgngcxv	Yesavg 72.6¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$127.05	82% 1758-394 (2152)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 76.5¢	$33.88	$21.4	+$0.72	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$0.49	$15.2	+$15.2	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100	Noavg 15¢	$3	$4.6	+$1.8	39% 965-1508 (2473)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Noavg 16¢	$1.37	$1.1	-$0.27	52% 5046-4713 (9759)
ME merodCTR<$100	Noavg 17.7¢	$0.78	$0.64	-$0.14	51% 2516-2391 (4907)

alwaysOn

Yes

Invested

$8,159.03

Value

$8.9K

PnL

+$716.65

Record

77%

632-185 (817)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Yes

Invested

$6,517.62

Value

$5.7K

PnL

-$828.32

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

zxdfbdfgngcxv

Yes

Invested

$2,692.52

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$127.05

Record

82%

1758-394 (2152)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.88

Value

$21.4

PnL

+$0.72

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

wokerjoesleeper<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.49

Value

$15.2

PnL

+$15.2

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$4.6

PnL

+$1.8

Record

39%

965-1508 (2473)

korda77CTR<$100

Invested

$1.37

Value

$1.1

PnL

-$0.27

Record

52%

5046-4713 (9759)

merodCTR<$100

Invested

$0.78

Value

$0.64

PnL

-$0.14

Record

51%

2516-2391 (4907)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 76%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

4872h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on Yes) and the top 1000 (3 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 3

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.0%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.