Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 68¢ · $113 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes68¢No32¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

Total Value

$113.25

Combined PnL

-$96.77

Research grade

NeutralYes at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes68%

No33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$81.45

Total Shares251

Combined PnL-$101.06

Yes5 traders

Total Value$31.5

Total Shares47

Combined PnL+$4.29

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

7 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (6 on No) and the top 1000 (2 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 100% · 2

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x75d1B199a96801338e67a6eFAa35C0028eA87A5F-1770658242710CTR<$100	Noavg 62.6¢	$81.74	$42.55	-$39.18	51% 2097-1976 (4073)
pup1CTR<$100	Noavg 84.4¢	$84.51	$32.5	-$52.01	46% 1978-2361 (4339)
2B9S<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$2.36	$22.77	+$20.41	18% 3833-17376 (21209)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Noavg 82.6¢	$16.26	$6.4	-$9.86	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
HO Hourglass<$100	Yes	$5.08	$5.08	+$4.14	77% 8889-2658 (11547)
NO NoMoreMister	Yes	$130	$1.3	-$22.36	76% 8934-2819 (11753)
RA rated<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$0.25	$1.22	+$0.97	29% 2865-6952 (9817)
flow-trader-at-optiver<$100	Yesavg 6.6¢	$0	$1.13	+$1.13	39% 965-1508 (2473)

0x75d1B199a96801338e67a6eFAa35C0028eA87A5F-1770658242710CTR<$100

Invested

$81.74

Value

$42.55

PnL

-$39.18

Record

51%

2097-1976 (4073)

pup1CTR<$100

Invested

$84.51

Value

$32.5

PnL

-$52.01

Record

46%

1978-2361 (4339)

2B9S<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.36

Value

$22.77

PnL

+$20.41

Record

18%

3833-17376 (21209)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Invested

$16.26

Value

$6.4

PnL

-$9.86

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

Hourglass<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.08

Value

$5.08

PnL

+$4.14

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

NoMoreMister

Yes

Invested

$130

Value

$1.3

PnL

-$22.36

Record

76%

8934-2819 (11753)

rated<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.25

Value

$1.22

PnL

+$0.97

Record

29%

2865-6952 (9817)

flow-trader-at-optiver<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.13

PnL

+$1.13

Record

39%

965-1508 (2473)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 68%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

7 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (6 on No) and the top 1000 (2 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 100% · 2

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.4%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$44.17

Max Loss

-$100.00

144.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.