Consensus PnL $101K · win rate 63% (182–105, n=287) · hand-picked wallet · holds 8 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$100.9K
Record
182W / 105L
Win Rate
63.0%
of 287 settled
Batting Avg
57.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1025
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
36,452
Markets
446
Volume
$16.9M
Top consensus positions
8 in listed consensus markets · 8 of 8 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $32K · now 66¢ · in at 57¢with the consensus (68% of 131)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $15K · now 84¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (83% of 133)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $10K · now 72¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (80% of 86)
- Will GameStop acquire eBay?No $3.8K · now 95¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (97% of 30)
- Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes $3.6K · now 74¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (68% of 45)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $3.5K · now 71¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (82% of 110)
- Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?Yes $2.1K · now 91¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (85% of 20)
- Will Likud be in the next Israeli government?No $14 · now 62¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (100% of 8)
Specialties
363 settled consensus markets · held side won 64% at an average entry of 62¢- Geopolitics
+3 pts
side won 72% of 68 · avg entry 69¢
ROI +1%
- Entertainment
+2 pts
side won 77% of 39 · avg entry 75¢
ROI +3%
- Mentions
+14 pts
side won 60% of 10 · avg entry 46¢
ROI +4%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 39% of 105 at an average 40¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 30%(won 10% of 110)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 30% of 23)
- 50–70¢: 7%(won 56% of 25)
- 70¢ and up: 56%(won 98% of 205)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.