Will LSU Tigers win the 2027 CFP National Championship?
1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (14%) · No at 91¢ · $906 held · ends Jan 26, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 14%
$906.29
$243.71
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
33h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
14% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CUTJALENHURTS | Noavg 93.9¢ | $385.51 | $373.43 | -$12.08 | 52% 5926-5526 (11452) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $63.13 | $196.36 | +$139.25 | 41% 2003-2843 (4846) |
 LiquidatedDegenCTR | Yesavg 7.8¢ | $163.45 | $189.79 | +$26.34 | 42% 1087-1487 (2574) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR | Yes | $113.77 | $113.77 | +$98.39 | 45% 2406-2980 (5386) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR | Yesavg 8.5¢ | $144.7 | $27.15 | -$10.45 | 55% 3082-2481 (5563) |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.2¢ | $1.42 | $3.07 | +$1.64 | 51% 2129-2037 (4166) |
88 881112CTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $2.1 | $2.72 | +$0.62 | 37% 573-979 (1552) |
CUTJALENHURTSInvested
$385.51
Value
$373.43
PnL
-$12.08
Record
52%
5926-5526 (11452)
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$63.13
Value
$196.36
PnL
+$139.25
Record
41%
2003-2843 (4846)
LiquidatedDegenCTRInvested
$163.45
Value
$189.79
PnL
+$26.34
Record
42%
1087-1487 (2574)
Invested
$113.77
Value
$113.77
PnL
+$98.39
Record
45%
2406-2980 (5386)
UbuntuTradingCTRInvested
$144.7
Value
$27.15
PnL
-$10.45
Record
55%
3082-2481 (5563)
Invested
$1.42
Value
$3.07
PnL
+$1.64
Record
51%
2129-2037 (4166)
Invested
$2.1
Value
$2.72
PnL
+$0.62
Record
37%
573-979 (1552)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.