Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 64¢ · $931 held · ends Dec 1

Yes64¢No36¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 20%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$931.47

Combined PnL

$199.7

Research grade

NeutralYes at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 5 top traders (20%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes64%

No36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$340.94

Total Shares550

Combined PnL+$205.57

No4 traders

Total Value$32.92

Total Shares85

Combined PnL-$5.87

Yes — 20%No — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

101h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnapElectionAvoider	Yesavg 24.6¢	$135.37	$340.94	+$205.57	50% 1272-1290 (2562)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 44.1¢	$833.15	$294.04	+$16.05	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
└ No leg	Noavg 44.1¢	$175.17	$160.87	+$18.45
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 53¢	$118.71	$133.17	-$2.4
IstarothARB<$100	Yesavg 63.3¢	$313.12	$263.57	-$16.45	15% 459-2699 (3158)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 63.3¢	$171.88	$168.47	-$6.75
└ No leg	Noavg 39.2¢	$106.4	$95.1	-$9.7
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$15.1	$15.35	+$0.4	53% 8200-7292 (15492)
AK akrollCTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$12.66	$11.66	-$1	32% 440-926 (1366)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Noavg 68¢	$8.08	$4.16	-$3.92	42% 6979-9779 (16758)
AnjunCTR<$100	Noavg 61¢	$3.05	$1.75	-$1.35	55% 5020-4099 (9119)

SnapElectionAvoider

Yes

Invested

$135.37

Value

$340.94

PnL

+$205.57

Record

50%

1272-1290 (2562)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$833.15

Value

$294.04

PnL

+$16.05

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

Both legs:

No$175.1744.1¢+$18.45

Yes$118.7153¢-$2.4

IstarothARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$313.12

Value

$263.57

PnL

-$16.45

Record

15%

459-2699 (3158)

Both legs:

Yes$171.8863.3¢-$6.75

No$106.439.2¢-$9.7

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$15.1

Value

$15.35

PnL

+$0.4

Record

53%

8200-7292 (15492)

akrollCTR<$100

Invested

$12.66

Value

$11.66

PnL

-$1

Record

32%

440-926 (1366)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Invested

$8.08

Value

$4.16

PnL

-$3.92

Record

42%

6979-9779 (16758)

AnjunCTR<$100

Invested

$3.05

Value

$1.75

PnL

-$1.35

Record

55%

5020-4099 (9119)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 64%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 5 top traders (20%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

101h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.9%

64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$51.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

151.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.