Consensus PnL $98K · win rate 35% (278–519, n=797) · PM monthly #108 · holds 25 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$98.0K
Record
278W / 519L
Win Rate
35.0%
of 797 settled
Batting Avg
9.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2546
Source
PM monthly #108
Record (90 d)
197/444 · 44%
Trades
5,556
Markets
1,660
Volume
$439.6K
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Top consensus positions
25 in listed consensus markets · 22 of 25 on the consensus side (88%)- Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?No $8.3K · now 61¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (78% of 59)
- Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?No $5.2K · now 39¢ · in at 38¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will xAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes $623 · now 26¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (100% of 55)
- Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?No $212 · now 57¢ · in at 67¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?No $50 · now 42¢ · in at 37¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democrats win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Yes $8 · now 0¢ · in at 8¢with the consensus (93% of 27)
- Will Kuo Hsi win the next Taipei Mayor election?Yes $7 · now 0¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (98% of 45)
- Will Ann Diener win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes $3 · now 0¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (97% of 38)
Specialties
369 settled consensus markets · held side won 43% at an average entry of 44¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where akroll's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Elections — held side won 62% of 68 at an average 65¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI +11%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 53%(won 1% of 196)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 43% of 7)
- 50–70¢: 4%(won 53% of 15)
- 70¢ and up: 41%(won 95% of 151)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.