Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (22%) · No at 96¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 22%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$308.43

Smart Money Entry

99.3¢ → 96¢

-3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares2,886

Combined PnL+$33.58

Yes7 traders

Total Value$428.1

Total Shares9,675

Combined PnL+$274.85

No — 22%Yes — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

720h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
E4 e46m3	Noavg 99.3¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$33.85	72% 12562-4974 (17536)
0X 0xAe81145A62f51cb1CTR	Yesavg 1¢	$612.3	$342.57	+$248.1	42% 651-889 (1540)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$16.9	$37.68	+$20.78	50% 1237-1251 (2488)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 97¢	$29.09	$28.82	-$0.27	54% 26656-22371 (49027)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR	Yesavg 1.2¢	$461.42	$18	+$12.61	27% 6133-16273 (22406)
GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.5¢	$21.15	$12.81	-$10.17	51% 539-527 (1066)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$8.83	$10.33	+$1.5	74% 12150-4326 (16476)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$4.63	$6.55	+$1.93	39% 3004-4778 (7782)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$0.07	$0.17	+$0.1	49% 7836-8310 (16146)

e46m3

Invested

$2,648.82

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$33.85

Record

72%

12562-4974 (17536)

0xAe81145A62f51cb1CTR

Yes

Invested

$612.3

Value

$342.57

PnL

+$248.1

Record

42%

651-889 (1540)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.9

Value

$37.68

PnL

+$20.78

Record

50%

1237-1251 (2488)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$29.09

Value

$28.82

PnL

-$0.27

Record

54%

26656-22371 (49027)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR

Yes

Invested

$461.42

Value

$18

PnL

+$12.61

Record

27%

6133-16273 (22406)

GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.15

Value

$12.81

PnL

-$10.17

Record

51%

539-527 (1066)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.83

Value

$10.33

PnL

+$1.5

Record

74%

12150-4326 (16476)

GingerMcKennaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.63

Value

$6.55

PnL

+$1.93

Record

39%

3004-4778 (7782)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.17

PnL

+$0.1

Record

49%

7836-8310 (16146)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

720h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.2%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.