Will Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2026 AFC North?
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 70¢ · $811 held · ends Jan 18, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 38%
$811.42
$124.96
80.3¢ → 69.5¢
-13% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
679h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DO donthackme | Noavg 84.1¢ | $411.51 | $336.41 | -$75.1 | 55% 42163-34090 (76253) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Yesavg 14¢ | $69.58 | $159.04 | +$82.01 | 51% 5745-5414 (11159) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 7.9¢ | $27.5 | $112 | +$79.25 | 41% 2322-3385 (5707) |
AU auros2 | Noavg 68¢ | $111.42 | $111.42 | +$2.8 | — 6-7 (13) |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.3¢ | $35.06 | $72.1 | +$37.03 | 38% 2889-4713 (7602) |
AN anciano<$100 | Noavg 84.9¢ | $17.47 | $14.4 | -$3.07 | 55% 1611-1330 (2941) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 20.9¢ | $2.3 | $3.52 | +$1.21 | 30% 2947-6822 (9769) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17.4¢ | $1.05 | $1.92 | +$0.84 | 50% 24077-24172 (48249) |
Invested
$411.51
Value
$336.41
PnL
-$75.1
Record
55%
42163-34090 (76253)
Invested
$69.58
Value
$159.04
PnL
+$82.01
Record
51%
5745-5414 (11159)
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$27.5
Value
$112
PnL
+$79.25
Record
41%
2322-3385 (5707)
Invested
$111.42
Value
$111.42
PnL
+$2.8
Record
—
6-7 (13)
Invested
$35.06
Value
$72.1
PnL
+$37.03
Record
38%
2889-4713 (7602)
Invested
$17.47
Value
$14.4
PnL
-$3.07
Record
55%
1611-1330 (2941)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$3.52
PnL
+$1.21
Record
30%
2947-6822 (9769)
Invested
$1.05
Value
$1.92
PnL
+$0.84
Record
50%
24077-24172 (48249)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.