Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (63%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Porto win the 2026-27 Primeira Liga Championship?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 37¢ · $4K held · ends Jun 15, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$3.6K
$-2.5K
68.7¢ → 37¢
-46% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 37%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Mature
35h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CUTJALENHURTSCTR | Noavg 70¢ | $5.8K | $3.3K | $-2.5K | 52% 5948-5557 (11505) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 40.4¢ | $130.16 | $132.7 | +$2.54 | 35% 18146-33983 (52129) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 40.4¢ | $91.75 | $89.63 | -$2.13 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 53.9¢ | $38.41 | $43.08 | +$4.67 | |
BU Burkilota1CTR | Noavg 42.6¢ | $106.63 | $92.5 | -$14.13 | 63% 712-413 (1125) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 44.2¢ | $59.49 | $34.9 | -$6.51 | 58% 19455-14308 (33763) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $20.38 | $18.72 | -$1.66 | 53% 8223-7324 (15547) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $8.4 | $7.9 | -$1 | 44% 2192-2842 (5034) |
ND ndb1CTR<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $7.41 | $6.36 | -$1.37 | 66% 938-493 (1431) |
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $7.1 | $3.95 | -$3.15 | 49% 8836-9340 (18176) |
CUTJALENHURTSCTRInvested
$5,770.45
Value
$3.3K
PnL
$-2.5K
Record
52%
5948-5557 (11505)
Invested
$130.16
Value
$132.7
PnL
+$2.54
Record
35%
18146-33983 (52129)
Both legs:
Invested
$106.63
Value
$92.5
PnL
-$14.13
Record
63%
712-413 (1125)
Invested
$59.49
Value
$34.9
PnL
-$6.51
Record
58%
19455-14308 (33763)
Invested
$20.38
Value
$18.72
PnL
-$1.66
Record
53%
8223-7324 (15547)
Invested
$8.4
Value
$7.9
PnL
-$1
Record
44%
2192-2842 (5034)
Invested
$7.41
Value
$6.36
PnL
-$1.37
Record
66%
938-493 (1431)
Invested
$7.1
Value
$3.95
PnL
-$3.15
Record
49%
8836-9340 (18176)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.