Will Ra'am win 8 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 99¢ · $28K held · ends Nov 30

Yes99¢No1¢Ends Mon, Nov 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 88%

Total Value

$28.3K

Combined PnL

$8.6K

Smart Money Entry

69.8¢ → 98.7¢

+41% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$27.6K

Total Shares28,074

Combined PnL+$7.9K

No1 trader

Total Value$676.33

Total Shares452

Combined PnL+$639.85

Yes — 88%No — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

182h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DonaldinhoTrumpito	Yesavg 90¢	$18.0K	$19.7K	+$1.6K	67% 506-251 (757)
0X 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960	Yesavg 20.1¢	$792.04	$3.9K	+$3.1K	63% 165-98 (263)
mr.ozi	Yesavg 13.6¢	$366.13	$2.7K	+$2.3K	68% 1239-582 (1821)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Yesavg 38.7¢	$439.99	$916.19	+$476.2	32% 4493-9634 (14127)
ME melonmanmCTR	Noavg 18.8¢	$36.48	$676.33	+$639.85	65% 526-281 (807)
CO Contestable-Parfait	Yesavg 13.8¢	$55.2	$394.6	+$339.4	38% 20-32 (52)
cambridgeisaac<$100	Yesavg 10.6¢	$10.6	$98.4	+$88.05	57% 1113-837 (1950)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 98.4¢	$4.92	$4.92	+$0	76% 11352-3524 (14876)

DonaldinhoTrumpito

Yes

Invested

$18,000

Value

$19.7K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

67%

506-251 (757)

0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960

Yes

Invested

$792.04

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$3.1K

Record

63%

165-98 (263)

mr.ozi

Yes

Invested

$366.13

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

68%

1239-582 (1821)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Yes

Invested

$439.99

Value

$916.19

PnL

+$476.2

Record

32%

4493-9634 (14127)

melonmanmCTR

Invested

$36.48

Value

$676.33

PnL

+$639.85

Record

65%

526-281 (807)

Contestable-Parfait

Yes

Invested

$55.2

Value

$394.6

PnL

+$339.4

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

cambridgeisaac<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.6

Value

$98.4

PnL

+$88.05

Record

57%

1113-837 (1950)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.92

Value

$4.92

PnL

+$0

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

182h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.