Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Ra'am win exactly 7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 1.5¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 30

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Mon, Nov 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 88%

Total Value

$6.6K

Combined PnL

$-7.7K

Smart Money Entry

68.8¢ → 1.5¢

-98% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$6.2K

Total Shares6,260

Combined PnL+$4.0K

Yes7 traders

Total Value$384.2

Total Shares17,535

Combined PnL$-11.7K

No — 13%Yes — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Late

358h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ME melonmanm	Noavg 33.1¢	$2.2K	$6.2K	+$4.0K	65% 526-281 (807)
DonaldinhoTrumpitoCTR	Yesavg 65¢	$6.5K	$240	$-6.3K	67% 506-251 (757)
0X 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960CTR	Yesavg 79.9¢	$3.2K	$59.28	$-3.1K	63% 165-98 (263)
The-JokerCTR	Yesavg 85.1¢	$1.6K	$45.34	$-1.6K	68% 1507-701 (2208)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR	Yesavg 48.3¢	$472.46	$24.18	-$448.28	32% 4493-9634 (14127)
SardinianshepherdCTR	Yesavg 54.4¢	$253.59	$11.2	-$246.59	65% 928-506 (1434)
cambridgeisaacCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$20	$2.4	-$18.55	57% 1113-837 (1950)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100	Yesavg 28.5¢	$34.27	$1.8	-$32.46	38% 20-32 (52)

melonmanm

Invested

$2,166.04

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$4.0K

Record

65%

526-281 (807)

DonaldinhoTrumpitoCTR

Yes

Invested

$6,499.99

Value

$240

PnL

$-6.3K

Record

67%

506-251 (757)

0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960CTR

Yes

Invested

$3,158.95

Value

$59.28

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

63%

165-98 (263)

The-JokerCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,606.92

Value

$45.34

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

68%

1507-701 (2208)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR

Yes

Invested

$472.46

Value

$24.18

PnL

-$448.28

Record

32%

4493-9634 (14127)

SardinianshepherdCTR

Yes

Invested

$253.59

Value

$11.2

PnL

-$246.59

Record

65%

928-506 (1434)

cambridgeisaacCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$18.55

Record

57%

1113-837 (1950)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.27

Value

$1.8

PnL

-$32.46

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Late

358h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.6%

1.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3714.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

3814.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.