Will Radomir Saičić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?

1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (13%) · No at 94¢ · $446 held · ended Oct 25

Yes6¢No94¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 13%

Total Value

$446.37

Combined PnL

$27.86

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$252.57

Total Shares267

Combined PnL+$96.56

Yes7 traders

Total Value$193.8

Total Shares3,307

Combined PnL-$68.7

No — 13%Yes — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

219h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

12 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpYes 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO rocky42019	Noavg 58.4¢	$156.01	$252.57	+$96.56	42% 1725-2358 (4083)
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100	Yes	$75.2	$75.2	+$0	39% 1781-2832 (4613)
HE HerrieDavisCTR	Yesavg 11.5¢	$120.57	$60.7	-$59.87	36% 2086-3721 (5807)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$17.5	$17.5	+$12.78	7% 14-187 (201)
MA Maki777CTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$10	$13.63	+$3.63	38% 9-15 (24)
HO HourglassCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$3.77	$10.9	+$7.13	77% 8889-2658 (11547)
themagicofcinemaCTR<$100	Yesavg 20.4¢	$25.97	$9.1	-$16.87	66% 431-218 (649)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100	Yesavg 17.9¢	$22.27	$6.77	-$15.5	50% 357-357 (714)

rocky42019

Invested

$156.01

Value

$252.57

PnL

+$96.56

Record

42%

1725-2358 (4083)

BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$75.2

Value

$75.2

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

1781-2832 (4613)

HerrieDavisCTR

Yes

Invested

$120.57

Value

$60.7

PnL

-$59.87

Record

36%

2086-3721 (5807)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.5

Value

$17.5

PnL

+$12.78

Record

14-187 (201)

Maki777CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$13.63

PnL

+$3.63

Record

38%

9-15 (24)

HourglassCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.77

Value

$10.9

PnL

+$7.13

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

themagicofcinemaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.97

Value

$9.1

PnL

-$16.87

Record

66%

431-218 (649)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.27

Value

$6.77

PnL

-$15.5

Record

50%

357-357 (714)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

219h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

12 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpYes 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.0%

93.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.